Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:34:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a5e…e880 crypto 544 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$261 (-4%) realized −$266 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%287W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$88
14 days−$5
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$352
other 0% +$6
politics 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 50% -2.1%
≤30d 212 -15.1% -23.1% 47% 47% -7.5%
≤90d 519 -5.5% -14.5% 52% 51% -16.2%
all 541 -2.9% -12.1% 53% 53% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 53% -14.7%
10% -20.6% 52% -22.8%
15% -28.2% 51% -30.3%
20% -35.3% 50% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$266
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses287 / 254
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)541 / 544
History coverage104d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $258 +$225 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $98 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $23 +$22 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $39 +$23 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$39 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $115 +$95 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$29 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$16 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $202 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $57 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $88 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.31 · official $25.31 (match) · 1099 history records