Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a5e…6179 crypto 195 markets active 15h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate65%127W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -5.0% -14.0% 61% 31% -14.0%
≤30d 195 -1.5% -10.9% 65% 36% -11.1%
≤90d 195 -1.5% -10.9% 65% 36% -11.1%
all 195 -1.5% -10.9% 65% 36% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 36% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 17% -19.6%
15% -27.2% 4% -27.3%
20% -34.3% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses127 / 68
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)195 / 195
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 195 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 15h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 395 history records