Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a5c…8e37 crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (201 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate41%37W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day201.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$314
sports 3% +$235
other 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (201 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +16.6% +5.5% 41% 26% -14.2%
≤30d 90 +16.6% +5.5% 41% 26% -14.2%
≤90d 90 +16.6% +5.5% 41% 26% -14.2%
all 90 +16.6% +5.5% 41% 26% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover201.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.5% 26% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -4.6% 23% -22.4%
15% -13.8% 19% -29.9%
20% -22.2% 12% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses37 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day201.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$33 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $66 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $81 $0 -0%
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$14 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$2 -16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$24 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $137 −$50 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $87 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $149 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $202 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $144 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $153 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $92 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $111 +$5 +4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$25 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$14 +133%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $75 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $24 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.29 · official $11.29 (match) · 422 history records