Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:06:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9A 0x9a5c…9c0c crypto 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-3%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate70%69W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$38
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$2
other 17% −$56
sports 12% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.3% -7.4% 64% 60% -20.0%
≤30d 30 +4.7% -5.3% 67% 63% -16.9%
≤90d 90 +16.6% +5.5% 68% 61% -14.5%
all 99 +14.7% +3.8% 70% 57% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 57% -11.3%
10% -6.1% 46% -19.8%
15% -15.2% 38% -27.6%
20% -23.5% 18% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses69 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage174d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +47%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $50 +$17 +35%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $15 +$5 +36%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $8 +$4 +50%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $64 −$64 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $7 +$3 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -88%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$5 +103%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7 +$3 +34%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $2 +$5 +355%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $7 +$2 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 +$11 +38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$3 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$6 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 +$4 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 05 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 05 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 05 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 05 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 04 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 04 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 04 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 04 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 04 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 04 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 04 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 04 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 04 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 04 $7 +$5 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 04 $3 +$2 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 90¢ $40 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 90¢ $27 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 67¢ $10 17h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 66¢ $50 17h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25 BUY 44¢ $5 40h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $8 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 36¢ $10 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $64 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 39¢ $8 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $8 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 61¢ $6 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $7 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 78¢ $30 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $30 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 94¢ $9 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 291 history records