Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:20:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a59…a844 crypto 486 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,844 (-15%) realized −$5,844 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%141W / 345L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$343
7 days+$343
14 days+$343
30 days+$495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7,869
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +20.5% +9.0% 67% 67% +23.1%
≤30d 21 +29.3% +17.0% 48% 48% +9.0%
≤90d 411 -44.2% -49.5% 22% 21% -41.3%
all 486 -24.9% -32.1% 29% 28% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 28% -28.3%
10% -38.6% 28% -35.1%
15% -44.5% 27% -41.4%
20% -49.9% 26% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$71 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,844
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses141 / 345
Open positions0
Markets (closed)486 / 486
History coverage103d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 486 Trades
no open positions (115 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET Jun 25 $281 +$151 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$95 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $53 +$29 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$70 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $157 +$121 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1PM ET Jun 06 $315 −$137 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $106 −$49 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $326 +$193 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $211 +$249 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 06 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $159 +$94 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 06 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 06 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 06 $520 +$227 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 06 $106 −$50 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 21 $110 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 21 $26 +$56 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 21 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1PM ET May 21 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 21 $94 +$60 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 21 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 21 $65 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 21 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 21 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 21 $174 −$102 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 21 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 21 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 21 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 21 $53 −$19 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 21 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 19 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 19 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 19 $193 −$184 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 19 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 19 $212 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5PM ET May 19 $110 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 19 $46 +$65 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 19 $90 −$43 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $71 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $70 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $261 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $100 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $53 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $53 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $181 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $158 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $57 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $519 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1130 history records