Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a57…913f sports 250 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$634 (+5%) realized +$634 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate91%226W / 23L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Fees−$238est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$64
14 days+$68
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$166
other 5% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 11% -6.3%
≤30d 84 +26.1% +14.1% 94% 19% -6.2%
≤90d 249 +9.0% -1.4% 91% 15% -7.8%
all 249 +9.0% -1.4% 91% 15% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 15% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 5% -16.7%
15% -19.4% 1% -24.7%
20% -27.3% 1% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$23 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$634
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses226 / 23
Est. fees paid−$238
Open positions1
Markets (closed)249 / 250
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KPL Indo Nepal T20: RML Sports Academy India vs Chinnamasta Lions Chinnamasta Lions 99¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KPL Indo Nepal T20: Itahari Super Kings vs Mills Cricket Club and Acad Jun 29 $31 $0 +1%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom Jun 29 $83 +$4 +4%
Will Zimbabwe win? Jun 28 $81 −$6 -7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India Jun 28 $110 +$2 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh Jun 28 $57 +$2 +3%
T20 Central Europe Cup: Luxembourg vs Serbia Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Jun 27 $31 $0 +2%
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Shivamogga Yodhas vs Kalyani Bengaluru Blasters Jun 27 $48 +$6 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $177 +$4 +2%
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia Jun 27 $12 −$12 -99%
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings Jun 26 $3 $0 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $77 +$3 +4%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Essex Jun 26 $3 $0 +1%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 26 $18 +$1 +6%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $47 +$1 +2%
Will England win? Jun 26 $50 +$4 +7%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas Jun 26 $201 +$4 +2%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Panama Jun 25 $162 +$2 +1%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $51 +$5 +9%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $32 +$1 +4%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama Jun 24 $35 +$5 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $112 +$4 +3%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria Jun 23 $47 +$1 +3%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Thailand vs Singapore Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $92 +$4 +5%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Uzbekistan vs Indonesia Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 22 $162 +$29 +18%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand Jun 22 $19 $0 +3%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Jun 22 $63 +$2 +3%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $53 +$7 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $44 +$3 +8%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $6 $0 +3%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $33 +$2 +6%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 18 $39 +$2 +5%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 18 $36 +$4 +11%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 18 $4 +$1 +27%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
Will England win? Jun 17 $21 +$2 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $11 +$2 +15%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $93 +$8 +8%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $22 +$3 +14%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $121 +$2 +2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $42 +$1 +3%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $66 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KPL Indo Nepal T20: RML Sports Academy India vs Chinnamasta Lions BUY Chinnamasta Lions 99¢ $50 21m
KPL Indo Nepal T20: RML Sports Academy India vs Chinnamasta Lions SELL Chinnamasta Lions 67¢ $34 2h
KPL Indo Nepal T20: RML Sports Academy India vs Chinnamasta Lions BUY Chinnamasta Lions 15¢ $0 2h
KPL Indo Nepal T20: Itahari Super Kings vs Mills Cricket Club and Acad SELL Itahari Super Kings 100¢ $2 3h
KPL Indo Nepal T20: Itahari Super Kings vs Mills Cricket Club and Acad SELL Itahari Super Kings 100¢ $5 3h
KPL Indo Nepal T20: Itahari Super Kings vs Mills Cricket Club and Acad SELL Itahari Super Kings 100¢ $5 3h
KPL Indo Nepal T20: Itahari Super Kings vs Mills Cricket Club and Acad SELL Itahari Super Kings 100¢ $5 3h
KPL Indo Nepal T20: Itahari Super Kings vs Mills Cricket Club and Acad SELL Itahari Super Kings 100¢ $5 3h
KPL Indo Nepal T20: Itahari Super Kings vs Mills Cricket Club and Acad SELL Itahari Super Kings 100¢ $5 3h
KPL Indo Nepal T20: Itahari Super Kings vs Mills Cricket Club and Acad SELL Itahari Super Kings 100¢ $5 3h
KPL Indo Nepal T20: RML Sports Academy India vs Chinnamasta Lions BUY Chinnamasta Lions 32¢ $16 3h
KPL Indo Nepal T20: Itahari Super Kings vs Mills Cricket Club and Acad BUY Itahari Super Kings 99¢ $20 4h
KPL Indo Nepal T20: Itahari Super Kings vs Mills Cricket Club and Acad BUY Itahari Super Kings 99¢ $11 5h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom SELL San Francisco Unicorns 100¢ $80 6h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom BUY San Francisco Unicorns 99¢ $30 6h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom BUY San Francisco Unicorns 99¢ $50 6h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom SELL San Francisco Unicorns 47¢ $7 10h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom BUY San Francisco Unicorns 25¢ $1 18h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom BUY San Francisco Unicorns 25¢ $1 18h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom BUY San Francisco Unicorns 25¢ $1 18h
Will Zimbabwe win? SELL No 18¢ $3 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 72¢ $7 21h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY Australia 70¢ $7 21h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 71¢ $14 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 71¢ $9 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 71¢ $5 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 70¢ $14 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY Australia 69¢ $28 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY Australia 70¢ $14 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 70¢ $21 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.25 · official $49.25 (match) · 3500 history records