Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a56…563c crypto 819 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$195 (-5%) realized −$195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%437W / 382L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days−$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$205
other 10% −$118
sports 10% +$21
world 8% −$2
politics 6% −$15
tech 2% −$32
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -1.1% -10.6% 50% 43% -0.7%
≤30d 625 -10.6% -19.1% 58% 46% -17.3%
≤90d 819 -11.8% -20.2% 53% 44% -17.6%
all 819 -11.8% -20.2% 53% 44% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 44% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 33% -25.5%
15% -34.8% 22% -32.7%
20% -41.2% 14% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses437 / 382
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)819 / 819
History coverage75d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 819 Trades
no open positions (277 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +119%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +364%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by June 30? Jun 05 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 28 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 28 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 28 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 28 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 28 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2188 history records