Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9A 0x9a55…2cc1 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+6%) realized +$53 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$117
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$49
sports 18% +$104
crypto 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +5.4% -4.7% 52% 52% +7.2%
≤30d 51 -14.1% -22.3% 43% 39% -3.6%
≤90d 51 -14.1% -22.3% 43% 39% -3.6%
all 51 -14.1% -22.3% 43% 39% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 39% -3.6%
10% -29.7% 33% -12.8%
15% -36.5% 33% -21.2%
20% -42.7% 27% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage11d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 69¢ 86¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway Jun 23 $5 +$15 +299%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -74%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$1 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden Jun 20 $5 +$9 +171%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$14 +39%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $55 +$37 +68%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$25 +70%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $37 +$37 +102%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$21 +203%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 32¢ $5 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 22h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 23h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 23h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway BUY 25¢ $5 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 6¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 49¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $15 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden BUY 36¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $33.62 · 90 history records