Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a54…7191 sports 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,171 (-3%) realized −$12,755 · open −$12,416
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%116W / 128L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,945per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$5,063est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$7,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$20,468
sports 47% −$64,211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -16.9% -24.8% 43% 43% -46.3%
≤30d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 52% 52% -28.0%
≤90d 244 -1.5% -10.9% 48% 48% -13.6%
all 244 -1.5% -10.9% 48% 48% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 48% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 48% -21.8%
15% -27.2% 47% -29.4%
20% -34.4% 46% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$4,020) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,902 vs −$2,875 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$7,077
Realized−$12,755
Unrealized−$12,416
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses116 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$5,063
Open positions3
Markets (closed)244 / 247
History coverage72d
Avg bet$2,945
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 50¢ $5,808 $5,868 +$59 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 45¢ 42¢ $1,267 $1,196 −$70 (-6%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Under 47¢ $12,418 $13 −$12,405 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $247 +$88 +36%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $193 −$191 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $3,899 −$3,831 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $4,744 +$7,202 +152%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $216 +$164 +76%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $9,953 −$9,808 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $9,232 −$9,156 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10,833 −$10,833 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2,895 +$2,781 +96%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $6,917 +$7,313 +106%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3,989 −$3,889 -98%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $535 −$535 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5,750 −$5,450 -95%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,624 +$1,468 +90%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4,768 −$4,736 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3,572 +$3,047 +85%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $4,825 −$4,748 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5,158 −$5,102 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2,253 +$2,526 +112%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1,619 +$1,509 +93%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2,551 +$2,030 +80%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $4,610 +$2,982 +65%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $6,241 +$7,573 +121%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,556 −$1,533 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1,382 −$1,361 -98%
Will FC Baník Ostrava win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 +$1 +96%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $3,045 +$2,529 +83%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $4,429 +$4,847 +109%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,831 −$1,806 -99%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,644 −$1,617 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $2,503 −$2,468 -99%
Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2,816 +$3,538 +126%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 22 $2,391 −$2,354 -98%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $2,259 +$1,722 +76%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $4,030 +$4,956 +123%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $1,243 −$1,226 -99%
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $2,577 −$2,530 -98%
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $4,257 −$4,198 -99%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 2.5 May 21 $2,844 −$2,802 -98%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $1,542 −$1,519 -99%
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: Both Teams to S May 21 $1,319 −$1,302 -99%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $4,131 −$4,101 -99%
Spread: Pyramids FC (-1.5) May 21 $711 +$719 +101%
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5 May 21 $1,037 +$1,007 +97%
SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: Both Teams to Score May 21 $1,512 +$899 +60%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $2,004 −$1,975 -99%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $3,019 −$2,978 -99%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $6 $0 -3%
CD Cuenca vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $437 +$610 +140%
São Paulo FC vs. Millonarios FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $1,050 +$853 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $505 54m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $505 54m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $505 55m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $502 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $502 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $502 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $359 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $359 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $359 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $72 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $36 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $229 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $12 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1,015 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $405 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $32 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $24 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $16 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $143 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,057 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $587 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $745 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,077.31 · official $7,077.31 (match) · 1135 history records