Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:31:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9a53…1771 other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+0%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$23
politics 34% −$17
sports 3% +$104
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 109 +0.8% -8.8% 9% 6% -9.5%
all 121 +0.8% -8.8% 12% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 8% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 7% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 5% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×10.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage115d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $382 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $303 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $303 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $356 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,299 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $595 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $318 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $273 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $271 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $366 $0 -0%
Will Belgium be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $319 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 07 $381 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $266 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $284 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $379 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $633 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $319 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $368 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $278 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $285 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $369 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $331 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $310 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $312 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 37h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 42h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $37 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $37 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 10d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 11d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $62 11d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $62 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 14d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 15d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 22d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $328 24d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $328 25d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $303 26d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $303 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $270 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $270 28d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $333 28d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $333 29d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $371 29d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $372 30d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $303 30d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $303 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $356 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.98 · official $46.98 (match) · 345 history records