Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9A 0x9a53…71a3 sports 128 markets active 3h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$107 (-4%) realized −$106 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%71W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$34
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$120
world 2% +$7
other 1% −$6
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -17.9% -25.7% 44% 44% -11.3%
≤30d 70 -4.3% -13.4% 56% 47% -13.1%
≤90d 94 -6.2% -15.2% 57% 48% -12.1%
all 127 -7.7% -16.5% 56% 45% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 45% -13.5%
10% -24.5% 29% -21.7%
15% -31.8% 24% -29.3%
20% -38.5% 15% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses71 / 56
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage112d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 92¢ 91¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 14 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs VP.Prodigy (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $5 +$3 +68%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $9 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $8 +$1 +11%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $31 −$18 -56%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$14 +137%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 04 $6 +$3 +50%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $6 +$5 +79%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 03 $59 −$20 -34%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 03 $32 +$6 +18%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $10 +$12 +113%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl Jun 03 $5 +$6 +112%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $65 −$36 -56%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $40 −$38 -95%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 02 $20 −$1 -5%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $20 +$14 +68%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $93 +$22 +24%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $9 +$5 +50%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 01 $48 +$9 +18%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Inner Circle (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 01 $20 +$3 +17%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western E Jun 01 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: F9 Team vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $20 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: BALU vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Clo Jun 01 $20 +$2 +9%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Pipsqueak+4 (+1.5) May 31 $20 +$8 +42%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western E May 31 $34 +$2 +5%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western May 31 $40 +$3 +8%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner May 31 $20 +$3 +14%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 −$1 -12%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $20 +$15 +73%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 24 $19 −$19 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $41 −$16 -38%
Dota 2: SoloTeam vs Nix Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Playoffs May 23 $18 +$6 +33%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $31 −$15 -48%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 23 $50 −$27 -53%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $10 −$3 -28%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 22 $20 +$7 +34%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $51 +$31 +60%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 22 $40 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 92¢ $50 2h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 86¢ $50 7h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 82¢ $6 23h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY VP.Prodigy 51¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou SELL Power Rangers 58¢ $7 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Power Rangers 83¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs VP.Prodigy (BO1) - The International Europe Open BUY VP.Prodigy 0¢ $1 6d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Yellow Submarine 99¢ $9 6d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $7 6d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op BUY L1ga Team 68¢ $5 6d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Yellow Submarine 58¢ $5 6d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr SELL Power Rangers 89¢ $11 7d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 90¢ $11 7d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY VP.Prodigy 92¢ $10 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Team Yandex 99¢ $10 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 88¢ $9 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 99¢ $6 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 41¢ $3 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 62¢ $8 9d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Aurora 40¢ $8 10d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 62¢ $26 10d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 22¢ $2 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Team Yandex 48¢ $3 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 36¢ $10 10d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 48¢ $5 10d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $5 11d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 66¢ $6 12d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 55¢ $6 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.46 · official $49.73 (match) · 302 history records