trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $3 | +$2 | +57% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 13 | $3 | −$3 | -99% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $4 | −$4 | -99% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $4 | +$4 | +109% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Mar 11 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Mar 01 | $5 | +$12 | +233% |
| Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31? | Jan 27 | $2 | +$14 | +686% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 10 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET | Oct 05 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET | Sep 21 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET | Sep 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET | Sep 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET | Sep 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET | Sep 21 | $1 | +$4 | +415% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - September 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET | Sep 21 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12PM ET | Aug 17 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, 9AM ET | Aug 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, 8AM ET | Aug 17 | $2 | $0 | -22% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, 7AM ET | Aug 17 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Aug 17 | $8 | −$5 | -64% |
| Will West Ham United beat Aston Villa? | Jan 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -38.9% | -44.7% | 33% | 33% | -43.1% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -38.9% | -44.7% | 33% | 33% | -43.1% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -38.9% | -44.7% | 33% | 33% | -43.1% |
| all | 24 | -8.5% | -17.2% | 25% | 21% | -41.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.2% | 21% | -41.7% |
| 10% | -25.1% | 21% | -47.2% |
| 15% | -32.3% | 21% | -52.3% |
| 20% | -39.0% | 21% | -57.0% |