Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:13:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9A 0x9a4f…408b crypto 1267 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-4%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate72%915W / 351L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$106
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.0% +7.6% 100% 100% +6.0%
≤30d 3 +19.0% +7.6% 100% 100% +6.0%
≤90d 1185 -5.3% -14.4% 71% 53% -17.1%
all 1266 -4.3% -13.4% 72% 54% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 54% -14.3%
10% -21.7% 16% -22.5%
15% -29.3% 5% -30.0%
20% -36.2% 4% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses915 / 351
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1266 / 1267
History coverage130d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 21 $2 +$3 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 20 $1 +$2 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 20 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 20 $2 +$2 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 20 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 20 $2 +$4 +216%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 35d
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 3209 history records