Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a4f…4cfe other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-13%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -15.6% -23.7% 0% 0% -26.0%
≤30d 10 -15.6% -23.7% 0% 0% -26.0%
≤90d 10 -15.6% -23.7% 0% 0% -26.0%
all 10 -15.6% -23.7% 0% 0% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 0% -26.0%
10% -31.0% 0% -33.0%
15% -37.6% 0% -39.5%
20% -43.8% 0% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 15 $44 −$6 -13%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 15 20 Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $930 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Czechia be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 14 $3 $0 -9%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -17%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 14 $14 $0 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 14 $11 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 66¢ $11 56m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 74¢ $27 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 81¢ $44 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 15 20 SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 15 20 BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $930 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $930 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 1h
Will Czechia be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 26¢ $3 28h
Will Czechia be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 28¢ $3 28h
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 29h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 68¢ $2 29h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $2 29h
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 29h
Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup SELL No 42¢ $6 29h
Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup BUY No 42¢ $6 29h
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro SELL Yes 59¢ $13 30h
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro BUY Yes 60¢ $14 30h
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $16 30h
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $16 30h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St SELL Yes 52¢ $11 31h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 54¢ $11 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records