Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a4e…f525 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$128
other 3% +$504
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +20.7% +9.2% 55% 45% +25.7%
≤30d 40 -32.2% -38.6% 30% 28% +2.6%
≤90d 40 -32.2% -38.6% 30% 28% +2.6%
all 40 -32.2% -38.6% 30% 28% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 28% +2.6%
10% -44.5% 28% -7.2%
15% -49.9% 25% -16.2%
20% -54.8% 25% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$53 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage21d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $629 +$913 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $834 −$17 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $574 +$19 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $177 −$73 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $89 −$83 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $519 +$175 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $222 −$210 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $314 +$229 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $130 −$100 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $157 +$89 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $195 +$504 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $13 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $79 +$53 +68%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 08 $104 −$29 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $178 −$120 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $160 −$34 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $158 −$40 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $109 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $225 −$100 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $186 −$150 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $110 −$60 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $154 −$50 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $119 −$40 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $130 −$50 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $114 −$80 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $31 −$25 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $47 +$52 +112%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $15 +$14 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1,320 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $420 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $94 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $128 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $73 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $734 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $731 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $509 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $83 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $408 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $84 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $83 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $83 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $98 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $84 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $513 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records