Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9A 0x9a4e…ed30 crypto 240 markets active 1d ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%135W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days−$14
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$3
economics 5% −$8
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +1.7% -8.0% 59% 59% -6.8%
≤30d 237 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 57% -10.4%
≤90d 237 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 57% -10.4%
all 240 -2.2% -11.5% 56% 56% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 56% -12.9%
10% -20.0% 56% -21.3%
15% -27.7% 56% -28.9%
20% -34.8% 54% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses135 / 105
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage101d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions (105 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 375 history records