Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9a4b…03d6 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$21,634 (+105%) realized +$20,899 · open +$735
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$571per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2,195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,811
7 days+$2,863
14 days+$23,171
30 days+$24,638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$524
politics 23% +$18,547
other 22% +$3,066
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +58.6% +43.5% 80% 80% +46.2%
≤30d 7 +146.5% +123.1% 86% 86% +217.8%
≤90d 10 +72.6% +56.1% 60% 60% +194.3%
all 31 +3.0% -6.8% 42% 42% +97.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 42% +97.1%
10% -15.7% 39% +78.2%
15% -23.9% 35% +61.0%
20% -31.3% 32% +45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +225% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +118% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$801) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,092 vs −$322 · ×6.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.7 per $1 lost it wins $4.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$2,195
Realized+$20,899
Unrealized+$735
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage440d
Avg bet$571
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 100¢ $500 $1,111 +$611 (+122%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $660 $728 +$68 (+10%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 38¢ $100 $192 +$92 (+92%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 46¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,021 +$1,034 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,183 +$572 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$205 +101%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $460 −$460 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $785 +$1,512 +193%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $3,067 +$20,308 +662%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $2,086 +$1,467 +70%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 16 $291 −$287 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $307 −$300 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $200 −$196 -98%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 15 $1,730 −$467 -27%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Mar 11 $957 +$142 +15%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 28 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Feb 22 $265 −$265 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 21 $251 −$251 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Feb 21 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 15 $347 −$347 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will T1 win the LCK Cup 2026? Feb 12 $128 −$128 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 25 $384 +$100 +26%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jan 25 $801 −$801 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jan 25 $300 +$498 +166%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 23 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jan 23 $140 −$140 -100%
LoL: DRX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jan 18 $88 +$141 +159%
LoL: DRX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) Jan 16 $300 +$475 +158%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) Dec 16 $440 +$628 +143%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 10 $200 +$112 +56%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Apr 04 $1,761 −$1,761 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $407 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $121 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $525 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $177 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $591 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 15h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $203 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $677 27h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 $117 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 $160 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 $183 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $611 6d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes $416 13d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 24¢ $1,443 14d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 17¢ $1,206 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,194.95 · official $2,194.95 (match) · 148 history records