Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a48…8502 crypto 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$77 (-6%) realized −$76 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate57%87W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$42
sports 9% −$32
other 9% −$9
weather 7% −$7
world 2% +$3
economics 2% $0
politics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -7.4% -16.2% 59% 20% -21.9%
≤30d 69 -7.4% -16.2% 59% 20% -21.9%
≤90d 69 -7.4% -16.2% 59% 20% -21.9%
all 153 -6.1% -15.1% 57% 27% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 27% -15.9%
10% -23.2% 13% -24.0%
15% -30.6% 8% -31.3%
20% -37.4% 5% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses87 / 66
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)153 / 169
History coverage137d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 61¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$6 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$3 +34%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 $0 -35%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 $0 -26%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$14 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 21h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.40 · official $17.40 (match) · 726 history records