Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a48…f315 sports 345 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$42 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate62%212W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$31
14 days−$86
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$27
sports 27% −$85
weather 7% −$6
other 3% −$22
world 2% −$15
politics 0% −$6
culture 0% −$11
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -10.9% -19.4% 53% 35% -15.5%
≤30d 314 -3.7% -12.9% 61% 42% -11.7%
≤90d 344 -3.2% -12.4% 62% 42% -12.0%
all 344 -3.2% -12.4% 62% 42% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 42% -12.0%
10% -20.8% 31% -20.4%
15% -28.5% 22% -28.1%
20% -35.5% 11% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses212 / 132
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)344 / 345
History coverage48d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $5 +$8 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 16 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $5 −$2 -34%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Blinkova Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Anna Bondar Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$6 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -45%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +59%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 09 $10 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 6h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $5 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A SELL $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY $5 18h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 28h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $10 46h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $10 46h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $10 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $15 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.05 · official $39.03 (match) · 748 history records