Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9A 0x9a47…92b2 politics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$415per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% −$4
culture 4% $0
other 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 10 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage83d
Avg bet$415
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 16 $1,304 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,229 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,211 −$2 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $143 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $130 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Mar 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Mar 25 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,302 45m
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $63 53m
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 1h
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,251 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $147 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 1h
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $933 2h
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $276 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,211 2h
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $143 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 63d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $117 63d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $22 79d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 79d
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $130 83d
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $130 83d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 98¢ $13 83d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? SELL No 99¢ $13 83d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? SELL No 99¢ $14 83d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 98¢ $13 83d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? BUY No 99¢ $27 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records