Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a46…4b47 crypto 40 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$134 (-17%) realized −$135 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$187
other 7% +$45
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -20.6% -28.2% 47% 41% -26.4%
≤30d 35 -18.8% -26.5% 49% 46% -27.2%
≤90d 35 -18.8% -26.5% 49% 46% -27.2%
all 35 -18.8% -26.5% 49% 46% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 46% -27.2%
10% -33.5% 46% -34.1%
15% -39.9% 37% -40.5%
20% -45.8% 23% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$23 -91%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$16 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $23 +$10 +42%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $76 −$19 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $28 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia BUY 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 9¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.98 · official $15.98 (match) · 84 history records