Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9A 0x9a40…ded4 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%41W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$11
crypto 12% $0
other 3% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 -0.0% -9.5% 76% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses41 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage544d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? Jan 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $22 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 03 $4 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $5,527 −$11 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Diana Șoșoacă win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $425 - 430b on February 28? Mar 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Feb 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League? Feb 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? Feb 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? Feb 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Devin Booker win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jan 21 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 30d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $22 62d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $45 62d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 92d
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $54 92d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 120d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $18 121d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $42 122d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $3 150d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $17 150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $61 151d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $15 180d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? BUY No 100¢ $60 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $64 211d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $10 240d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 240d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $37 243d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $25 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $39 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $16 300d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $19 301d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $39 302d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $26 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $41 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 362d
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 364d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.62 · official $68.62 (match) · 110 history records