Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9A
0x9a3f…914a
other · 288 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4,963 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,933 · open −$471
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$57,082
Realized−$8,933
Unrealized−$471
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses152 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$989
Open positions133
Markets (closed)204 / 288
Avg bet$1,535
Trades / day260.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 133 History 204 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,848
7 days−$21,405
14 days−$8,933
30 days−$8,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 96¢ $213 $10,025 +$9,811 (+4597%)
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $4,126 $4,320 +$194 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $3,280 $4,131 +$851 (+26%)
Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election? Yes 59¢ 97¢ $1,484 $2,436 +$952 (+64%)
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary? Yes 50¢ 96¢ $1,247 $2,391 +$1,144 (+92%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $2,117 $2,310 +$193 (+9%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Yes 36¢ 50¢ $1,513 $2,095 +$582 (+38%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 75¢ 79¢ $1,875 $1,975 +$100 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 24¢ 30¢ $1,193 $1,525 +$332 (+28%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 46¢ 64¢ $927 $1,290 +$363 (+39%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $993 $992 −$2 (-0%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $990 $987 −$2 (-0%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $993 $986 −$7 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $966 $968 +$2 (+0%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $830 $840 +$10 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $750 $810 +$60 (+8%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $786 $786 +$0 (+0%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 70¢ $736 $765 +$29 (+4%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 64¢ 74¢ $639 $740 +$101 (+16%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 42¢ 37¢ $836 $739 −$97 (-12%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $700 $715 +$15 (+2%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 33¢ 14¢ $1,670 $675 −$995 (-60%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 65¢ 66¢ $652 $660 +$8 (+1%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $650 $655 +$5 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 32¢ $1,121 $650 −$471 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $434 −$104 -24%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $1,590 +$908 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $2,405 +$150 +6%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $30 +$12 +41%
Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $95 +$36 +38%
Will Trump announce Derek Harvey as the next Director of National Inte Jun 11 $505 +$2 +0%
Will Trump announce Robert O’Brien as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3,222 +$94 +3%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $39 +$76 +194%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $123 +$97 +78%
Will Aaron Judge attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $397 +$3 +1%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $1,289 +$6 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $245 +$105 +43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $3,888 +$28 +1%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $1,495 +$3 +0%
Will Steve Schirippa attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $260 +$240 +92%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1,163 −$1,163 -100%
Will Jimmy Fallon attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $670 −$670 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $0 +$9 +2714%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2,250 +$9 +0%
Will Adam Sandler attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $120 +$8 +7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $7,470 −$3,370 -45%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $1,702 −$830 -49%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $3,733 −$3,729 -100%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $138 −$125 -90%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 10 $4,033 +$747 +18%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 10 $610 +$55 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $106 +$144 +137%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $2,010 +$490 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1,960 +$40 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1,147 +$101 +9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $24,178 −$21,140 -87%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $2,900 +$443 +15%
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Clough be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 10 $1,013 +$1 +0%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,520 −$4 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $3,770 +$230 +6%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 14m? Jun 10 $1,000 $0 -0%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 10 $7,832 −$5,832 -74%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $652 −$652 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $1,778 +$722 +41%
Will Claude Mythos not be released by June 30? Jun 09 $162 +$2 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $185 +$15 +8%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 11? Jun 09 $216 +$4 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $245 +$5 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $378 +$42 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $714 +$121 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 29% −$10,853
other 24% −$6,521
politics 21% −$6,491
world 15% +$3,134
crypto 7% +$10,092
finance 2% $0
tech 1% +$457
culture 1% +$779
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 9m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $142 24m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 28m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 31m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $172 32m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $28 35m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $92 35m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $162 35m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $529 35m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $23 37m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $265 37m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $240 38m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $2,568 44m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $311 51m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 54m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $60 56m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 1h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $62 1h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $222 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $958 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $129 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $132 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $4,424 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $962 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $440 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 61¢ $328 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $23 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $112 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 +20.3% +8.9% 80% 35% -17.9%
≤30d 204 +21.4% +9.9% 75% 38% -11.7%
≤90d 204 +21.4% +9.9% 75% 38% -11.7%
all 204 +21.4% +9.9% 75% 38% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover260.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.9% 38% -11.7%
10% -0.6% 25% -20.1%
15% ← realistic here -10.2% 17% -27.8%
20% -19.0% 11% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57,082.34 · official $57,064.61 (match) · 3500 history records