Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9A
0x9a3e…58a2
other · 48 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage587d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $78 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $58 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $65 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 12 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $125 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? May 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $125 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 +$7 +79%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $9 +$9 +108%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $9 +$10 +105%
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $29 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 20 $9 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $21 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $8 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $182 −$2 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 03 $1,239 −$5 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $955 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $517 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 73% −$10
other 19% +$6
culture 3% $0
sports 2% +$6
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 2h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $10 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 19d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $23 23d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 25d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 25d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals BUY Baltimore Orioles 50¢ $10 27d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $66 30d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +20.5% +9.1% 25% 25% -3.2%
≤30d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 14% 7% -10.0%
≤90d 35 +1.4% -8.3% 29% 14% -8.6%
all 47 +0.9% -8.7% 28% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 11% -9.5%
10% -17.5% 11% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 11% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.88 · official $22.88 (match) · 226 history records