trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 12¢ | $1,029 | $802 | −$227 (-22%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 16¢ | $712 | $565 | −$147 (-21%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $279 | $239 | −$40 (-14%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $201 | $137 | −$64 (-32%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 30¢ | $81 | $88 | +$8 (+9%) |
| Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 3¢ | $74 | $49 | −$25 (-34%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $27 | $27 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 6¢ | $3 | $2 | −$1 (-31%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $4 | −$1 | -20% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $3 | $0 | +6% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | May 22 | $2 | +$9 | +495% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? | May 05 | $13 | +$17 | +130% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | Apr 17 | $1 | +$1 | +104% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? | Apr 15 | $1 | $0 | -15% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? | Apr 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? | Apr 15 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | Mar 30 | $0 | $0 | -60% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | -88% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? | Mar 28 | $1 | +$3 | +290% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | Mar 28 | $0 | +$1 | +150% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? | Mar 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -6.8% | -15.7% | 50% | 0% | -17.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +160.4% | +135.6% | 67% | 33% | +71.0% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +47.3% | +33.3% | 46% | 38% | +64.4% |
| all | 13 | +47.3% | +33.3% | 46% | 38% | +64.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +33.3% | 38% | +64.4% |
| 10% | +20.5% | 38% | +48.7% |
| 15% | +8.9% | 38% | +34.3% |
| 20% | -1.8% | 38% | +21.1% |