Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a3b…b968 sports 1308 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 237d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,637 (-2%) realized −$7,704 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%839W / 467L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1,663est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$1,212
14 days−$723
30 days−$2,264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$6,850
other 8% −$1,183
crypto 1% −$524
world 1% +$32
culture 0% +$381
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -4.6% -13.7% 62% 52% -13.0%
≤30d 386 -3.1% -12.4% 66% 54% -11.7%
≤90d 1070 -9.1% -17.8% 60% 47% -17.3%
all 1306 -2.6% -11.9% 64% 52% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 52% -11.7%
10% -20.3% 38% -20.1%
15% -28.0% 27% -27.8%
20% -35.1% 17% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$152 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$7,704
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses839 / 467
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,663
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1306 / 1308
History coverage238d ⚠
Avg bet$255
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 60¢ 100¢ $100 $167 +$67 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 +$206 +188%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$42 +42%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$36 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $303 +$162 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $400 +$259 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,389 −$472 -34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $675 −$112 -17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$23 +23%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $201 +$53 +27%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $100 +$17 +17%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $100 +$13 +13%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $200 +$13 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $304 +$195 +64%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$50 +50%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $202 −$44 -22%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $188 +$64 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $176 +$8 +5%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $201 +$37 +18%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $231 −$44 -19%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $73 −$23 -31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $98 −$94 -95%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$26 +26%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$36 -69%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $302 +$98 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$58 -58%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $331 +$176 +53%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$66 +22%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$214 +105%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$20 +40%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$37 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $101 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 11h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 11h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 11h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $102 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $100 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $400 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $382 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 80¢ $252 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 23¢ $111 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 54¢ $271 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 47¢ $75 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 50¢ $93 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 89¢ $100 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 81¢ $136 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $101 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 27¢ $79 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 60¢ $49 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 67¢ $202 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 33¢ $78 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $227 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $235 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 80¢ $101 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 90¢ $100 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 13¢ $8 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.58 · official $166.58 (match) · 3500 history records