Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9A 0x9a3a…a5a2 crypto 1508 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$403 (-9%) realized −$403 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%893W / 637L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$335
7 days−$363
14 days−$332
30 days−$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$185
sports 43% −$73
other 4% −$4
weather 1% +$4
politics 1% −$1
world 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 501 -2.7% -11.9% 76% 68% -40.0%
≤30d 555 -2.4% -11.7% 76% 67% -31.5%
≤90d 1058 -3.6% -12.8% 65% 51% -21.0%
all 1530 -7.9% -16.7% 58% 46% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 46% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 35% -28.4%
15% -31.9% 19% -35.4%
20% -38.6% 15% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$403
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses893 / 637
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1530 / 1508
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 81¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 7¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-02-28? Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$28 -350%
76ers vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: S2G Esports vs Bushido Wildcats - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions Sharks - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-02-28? Jun 17 $9 −$12 -135%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Jun 17 $78 −$74 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Spurs vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Forsaken - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Disguised vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 29.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: S2G Esports vs Bushido Wildcats - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Spurs Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.86 · official $17.99 · 3500 history records