Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9A 0x9a38…9980 world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate74%17W / 6L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$8
other 7% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 12 +2.9% -6.9% 67% 8% -7.6%
≤90d 12 +2.9% -6.9% 67% 8% -7.6%
all 23 -0.2% -9.7% 74% 9% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 9% -7.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -16.7%
15% -26.2% 0% -24.7%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.35 per $1 lost it wins $8.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses17 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage469d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $40 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $45 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 29 $8 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 19 $1 $0 +22%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order this week? Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $40 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $18 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $22 3h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $54 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $52 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $22 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $27 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $20 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $45 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $50 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $48 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $15 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $25 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $39 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $6 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $6 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records