Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:02:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

9A 0x9a37…9a35 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$771 (+17%) realized +$771 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%9W / 11L

Drawdown51%max

Avg bet$228per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit30%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$441

7 days+$436

14 days+$436

30 days+$690

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-11.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-10.7%	-19.2%	43%	43%	+3.7%
≤30d	15	-4.3%	-13.4%	47%	47%	+9.5%
≤90d	19	+3.2%	-6.6%	47%	47%	+14.7%
all	20	-2.0%	-11.3%	45%	45%	+4.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.3%	45%	+4.6%
10%	-19.8%	45%	-5.4%
15%	-27.5%	45%	-14.5%
20%	-34.7%	45%	-22.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +11% → late -14% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$282 vs −$166 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.39 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$771

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses9 / 11

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage221d

Avg bet$228

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown51%

Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$200	−$83	-41%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$200	−$200	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$390	+$497	+127%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$102	+$98	+96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 15	$69	−$52	-75%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$304	+$261	+86%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?	Jun 14	$41	−$40	-97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?	Jun 14	$41	−$40	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$260	−$256	-99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$152	+$94	+62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$203	+$165	+81%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$504	+$483	+96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$327	−$327	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$199	−$164	-82%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$296	+$254	+86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	May 06	$176	−$172	-98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	May 05	$102	−$97	-94%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Apr 30	$100	+$226	+226%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Apr 29	$500	+$464	+93%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 06	$400	−$400	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	30¢	$117	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	50¢	$194	3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	50¢	$1	3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	50¢	$1	3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	50¢	$2	3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	50¢	$1	3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	65¢	$200	6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	100¢	$499	6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	78¢	$387	7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$3	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$9	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$6	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$30	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$3	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$22	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$40	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$16	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$64	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$11	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$1	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$4	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$3	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$9	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$156	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$13	22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$200	23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$102	26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	SELL Yes	9¢	$18	27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$69	29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	100¢	$565	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records