Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a36…80a3 politics 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$1
world 26% +$1
politics 20% $0
crypto 8% $0
culture 6% +$4
tech 5% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.6% -6.3% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 0% -9.1%
all 33 +1.0% -8.6% 39% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -9.0%
10% -17.4% 3% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage299d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 +7%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $40 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $6 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 31 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $14 +$4 +28%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $34 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Aug 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 26 $4 $0 +1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $45 43h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $28 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $14 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $23 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $17 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $16 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $0 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $0 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $0 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $0 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $2 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $0 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $2 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $6 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.12 · official $41.12 (match) · 259 history records