Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:00:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9A 0x9a34…35b2 other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$34
politics 22% −$8
sports 7% −$5
economics 7% −$3
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.4% -22.6% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 104 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 8% -9.7%
all 111 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 7% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 7% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 6% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage96d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $184 $184 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $316 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $61 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $355 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $332 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $112 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $52 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $568 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $281 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 16 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $284 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 10 $276 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 09 $272 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 09 $301 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $289 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $277 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $281 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $278 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $291 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $301 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $300 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $279 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $281 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $540 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $295 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $285 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $278 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $292 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 2h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 3h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $16 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $58 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 5d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $184 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 10d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $41 11d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $41 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 16d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 18d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 18d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $62 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.69 · official $227.69 (match) · 334 history records