Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a32…c369 politics 151 markets active 3d ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%22W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$16
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$24
sports 25% −$7
other 21% −$5
crypto 7% −$8
finance 3% −$1
tech 3% −$3
culture 3% −$5
world 3% −$2
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.6% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 66 -0.5% -9.9% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 142 -0.3% -9.8% 13% 0% -9.7%
all 151 -0.3% -9.8% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses22 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage96d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $141 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $105 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $160 −$2 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $56 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 $0 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $234 +$1 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $54 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $60 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $44 +$4 +8%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $234 −$4 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $117 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 06 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $63 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $253 −$1 -0%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 03 $43 +$3 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $283 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $160 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $164 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $193 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 30 $148 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $188 −$1 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $41 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 26 $113 −$2 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 26 $284 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? May 25 $48 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $43 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $43 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 93¢ $45 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $46 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $47 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $48 4d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $47 4d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $56 4d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $56 4d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $58 4d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 4d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 4d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $12 4d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $12 4d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $59 4d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 5d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $28 5d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $29 5d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $59 5d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $60 5d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 5d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 97¢ $57 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $57 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 6d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 691 history records