Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:55:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9A 0x9a31…b2c2 crypto 942 markets active 0h ago coverage 570d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,284 (+5%) realized +$1,342 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%360W / 529L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$380
14 days+$967
30 days+$1,123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$694
other 9% +$7
sports 9% +$18
weather 7% +$166
economics 2% −$26
finance 2% +$337
politics 1% −$149
world 1% −$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +26.9% +14.8% 49% 49% +11.9%
≤30d 107 +46.4% +32.4% 54% 54% +31.5%
≤90d 719 -7.4% -16.2% 36% 36% -10.4%
all 889 +7.6% -2.6% 40% 39% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 39% -5.9%
10% -11.9% 38% -14.9%
15% -20.4% 37% -23.2%
20% -28.2% 35% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$19 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

570d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized+$1,342
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses360 / 529
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions40
Markets (closed)889 / 942
History coverage570d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 889 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 16¢ $24 $48 +$24 (+97%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $28 $39 +$11 (+39%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+135%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $14 $23 +$9 (+61%)
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 10¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+12%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29? Up 55¢ 42¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-24%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $16 +$8 (+104%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $10 $16 +$6 (+60%)
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists Yes 17¢ 17¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $18 $15 −$3 (-19%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Yes 25¢ 24¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists Yes 17¢ 16¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-26%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $70 in July? No 14¢ $4 $12 +$8 (+170%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $18 $11 −$7 (-38%)
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $18 $11 −$7 (-39%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 14¢ $18 $11 −$7 (-40%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Yes 35¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ $39 $8 −$31 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 29 $14 −$5 -36%
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 29 $8 −$3 -32%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 29 $8 +$7 +91%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $11 −$5 -44%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $11 +$5 +44%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$3 -16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $65 on June 29? Jun 29 $4 +$74 +1858%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $16 +$16 +105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $16 +$49 +309%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 +$8 +76%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$10 +101%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 +$13 +124%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $15 +$22 +144%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $30 +$21 +70%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 24 $10 +$13 +124%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $13 +$11 +86%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 24 $73 +$56 +77%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$22 +55%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $15 +$16 +107%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 24 $78 +$78 +100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 24 $289 +$189 +66%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $47 −$46 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $37 −$36 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $13 −$13 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $20 +$20 +97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $15 +$10 +67%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$7 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $10 23m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 52¢ $40 26m
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $10 28m
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $10 28m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $46 32m
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $15 32m
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $15 32m
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $15 32m
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes $9 1h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $65 on June 29? SELL Yes 98¢ $78 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 29? BUY Yes $5 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 29? BUY Yes $4 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No $10 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $70 in July? BUY No $4 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 29? BUY Yes $1 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 55¢ $10 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $65 on June 29? BUY Yes $4 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 55¢ $3 23h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 55¢ $8 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 17¢ $4 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.36 · official $542.87 · 2612 history records