Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a31…5af1 weather 291 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,899 (+9%) realized +$1,796 · open +$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%115W / 172L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day124.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$256
14 days+$531
30 days+$1,144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$1,340
world 1% −$45
sports 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -21.3% -28.8% 33% 28% -12.4%
≤30d 287 +8.4% -2.0% 40% 34% -4.8%
≤90d 287 +8.4% -2.0% 40% 34% -4.8%
all 287 +8.4% -2.0% 40% 34% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 34% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 28% -13.9%
15% -19.9% 21% -22.2%
20% -27.8% 15% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$24 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized+$1,796
Unrealized+$103
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses115 / 172
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)287 / 291
History coverage26d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day124.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 80¢ 100¢ $202 $252 +$50 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 15? Yes 7¢ 20¢ $20 $56 +$36 (+177%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Yes 33¢ 48¢ $38 $54 +$17 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $35 −$9 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$7 -60%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 −$7 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $59 +$77 +130%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $42 −$7 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $222 +$144 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $61 −$10 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $343 −$25 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $84 −$12 -15%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $28 −$18 -65%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 14 $13 −$6 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $28 −$9 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $22 −$11 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $308 +$37 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $56 −$46 -82%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $71 −$48 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 −$15 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $64 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 −$25 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $66 −$64 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $20 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $18 −$10 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $87 +$24 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $522 +$26 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $198 +$77 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$30 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $82 +$32 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $66 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $113 −$31 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 −$19 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 12 $63 −$52 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 12 $42 −$24 -58%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $53 +$46 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 −$5 -60%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $120 +$69 +57%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $81 +$11 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $96 +$107 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 −$68 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $87 −$18 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $60 +$41 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 11 $43 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $211 +$87 +41%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $81 −$8 -10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 −$4 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $127 −$31 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 10m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 10m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 10m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 49¢ $28 30m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 29¢ $27 54m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 23¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 18¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL Yes 86¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 28¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $35 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 41¢ $35 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 47¢ $42 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $27 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $24 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.55 · official $389.55 (match) · 3244 history records