Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:53:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a2e…5193 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-5%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$0
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$5
other 46% −$6
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -33.2% -39.6% 38% 38% -9.5%
≤30d 39 -30.2% -36.8% 38% 38% -10.9%
≤90d 39 -30.2% -36.8% 38% 38% -10.9%
all 39 -30.2% -36.8% 38% 38% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 38% -10.9%
10% -42.9% 36% -19.4%
15% -48.4% 33% -27.2%
20% -53.5% 21% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage9d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $4 −$3 -85%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $20 +$18 +89%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 −$9 -43%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $29 +$16 +57%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $17 +$12 +72%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $4 −$3 -86%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $69 +$21 +30%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $26 +$25 +93%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $35 +$15 +44%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$21 +139%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $37 +$15 +40%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $20 +$11 +54%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$25 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 Jun 20 $5 +$13 +261%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 56m
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $38 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $7 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 36¢ $12 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $20 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $46 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $29 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 6¢ $1 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $10 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $7 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $4 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 15¢ $5 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-0 BUY 7¢ $8 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $69 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $35 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records