Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a28…eff6 sports 425 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$453 (-7%) realized −$453 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%151W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$296
14 days−$122
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$192
other 25% +$95
crypto 4% −$63
politics 4% −$137
world 2% −$126
finance 1% +$37
tech 0% −$8
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -12.7% -21.0% 43% 41% -18.6%
≤30d 122 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 43% -12.5%
≤90d 232 -19.0% -26.7% 36% 34% -16.0%
all 425 -6.5% -15.4% 36% 34% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 34% -14.0%
10% -23.5% 32% -22.3%
15% -30.9% 30% -29.8%
20% -37.7% 25% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$453
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses151 / 274
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)425 / 425
History coverage132d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 425 Trades
no open positions (228 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $61 +$84 +138%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 +$12 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $104 −$103 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $91 −$88 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $25 −$20 -79%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$12 -24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $61 +$51 +83%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $51 +$68 +133%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $2 +$18 +873%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$22 +143%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$7 +66%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$7 -73%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $61 +$35 +57%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$37 +121%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 −$8 -68%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$12 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$30 +50%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $66 +$31 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$11 +75%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $71 +$28 +40%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 +$61 +60%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $145 55m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 56m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $40 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $104 18h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 5¢ $1 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $2 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $91 21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 7¢ $5 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 23h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 41h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $37 41h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $41 42h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 77¢ $119 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $61 45h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 8¢ $5 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 46h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 46h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $37 46h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 730 history records