trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -41.0% | -46.6% | 0% | 0% | -46.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -48.1% | -53.1% | 0% | 0% | -54.4% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -48.1% | -53.1% | 0% | 0% | -54.4% |
| all | 16 | -57.7% | -61.8% | 19% | 6% | -55.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -61.8% | 6% | -55.2% |
| 10% | -65.4% | 0% | -59.5% |
| 15% | -68.8% | 0% | -63.4% |
| 20% | -71.8% | 0% | -67.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $11 | −$4 | -41% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Jun 10 | $3 | −$1 | -42% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 10 | $10 | −$6 | -61% |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | Dec 29 | $1 | −$1 | -80% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 06 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on November 12 | Oct 30 | $2 | −$2 | -79% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on Novembe | Oct 30 | $2 | −$2 | -79% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on November | Oct 30 | $20 | +$3 | +17% |
| Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? | Oct 27 | $20 | −$12 | -60% |
| US x China tariff agreement by November 10? | Oct 27 | $47 | −$32 | -68% |
| Nuclear weapon detonation before October? | Oct 11 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 08 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025? | Sep 08 | $10 | −$4 | -42% |
| Another US military action against Iran by June 30? | Jun 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 24? | Jun 24 | $5 | $0 | +7% |