Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a26…c335 weather 410 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,841 (+67%) realized +$5,876 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate15%98W / 574L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day59.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$2,606
other 1% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 318 -87.1% -88.4% 3% 3% -92.2%
≤30d 420 -41.2% -46.8% 11% 11% -58.9%
≤90d 672 -18.9% -26.7% 15% 14% -39.5%
all 672 -18.9% -26.7% 15% 14% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 14% -39.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 14% -45.3%
15% -40.1% 14% -50.6%
20% -46.0% 14% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$25 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$5,876
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses98 / 574
Open positions4
Markets (closed)672 / 410
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day59.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 672 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 30? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$10 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 20? Jun 30 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 13 Jun 30 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27? Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on March 26? Jun 30 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 1? Jun 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on March 30? Jun 30 $18 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 6? Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? Jun 30 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 9? Jun 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 8? Jun 30 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 1? Jun 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 25? Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 2? Jun 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 6? Jun 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 3? Jun 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 29? Jun 30 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 15? Jun 30 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 13? Jun 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 4? Jun 30 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 1? Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 21? Jun 30 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C or higher on April 14? Jun 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 1? Jun 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Jun 30 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 1? Jun 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 26? Jun 30 $13 −$4 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on April 26? Jun 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C or higher on February 3? Jun 30 $11 +$31 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on April 21? Jun 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 29? Jun 30 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 12? Jun 30 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29? Jun 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? Jun 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 11? Jun 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on April 21? Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 29? Jun 30 $29 −$28 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 17? Jun 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25? Jun 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 30? Jun 30 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 19? Jun 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26? Jun 30 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 4? Jun 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on April 19? Jun 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 15? Jun 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on April 5? Jun 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 30? Jun 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 21? Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 6? Jun 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on March 30? Jun 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 26m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 26m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.46 · official $60.46 (match) · 3500 history records