Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:03:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9a23…0e0c crypto 1298 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate68%873W / 418L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$124
other 8% +$172
sports 6% −$49
tech 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -15.1% -23.2% 31% 28% +2.2%
≤30d 32 -15.1% -23.2% 31% 28% +2.2%
≤90d 32 -15.1% -23.2% 31% 28% +2.2%
all 1291 +0.1% -9.5% 68% 67% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 67% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 67% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 64% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses873 / 418
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1291 / 1298
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 58¢ 60¢ $119 $123 +$4 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 63¢ 61¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-3%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 22¢ $22 $42 +$21 (+94%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 75¢ 23¢ $38 $12 −$26 (-69%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 52¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 24 $324 +$152 +47%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $18 −$1 -4%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$1 -5%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$1 -3%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $31 −$1 -4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $14 −$5 -34%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$10 -48%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$11 -52%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Uzbekistan vs Indonesia Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$1 -6%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$1 -6%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 -2%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 -2%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 -0%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$1 -5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$10 +101%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$1 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$8 +76%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $10 +$2 +23%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$3 +31%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$12 +114%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$15 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 27 $4 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 27 $4 +$1 +39%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 27 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 27 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 27 $4 +$1 +39%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 27 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 27 $4 +$1 +39%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 27 $7 −$2 -30%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 27 $4 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 0m
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 58¢ $35 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 75¢ $38 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 58¢ $36 1h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $8 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 57¢ $46 2h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $477 20h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 91¢ $31 26h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 26h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 88¢ $27 26h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 88¢ $146 26h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 26h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 27h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 27h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 27h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $8 27h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $10 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 55¢ $10 27h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $10 27h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $8 35h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $10 35h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 35h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 35h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 39h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 39h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $4 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.51 · official $277.47 (match) · 3500 history records