Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:04:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9A 0x9a20…bda6 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$264 (+64%) realized +$230 · open −$51

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +144% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +121% what you keep after slip

Net edge+121%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate53%8W / 7L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit72%portable

Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$290

7 days+$249

14 days+$249

30 days+$249

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)+120.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+161.6%	+136.7%	57%	57%	+60.7%
≤30d	14	+161.6%	+136.7%	57%	57%	+60.7%
≤90d	14	+161.6%	+136.7%	57%	57%	+60.7%
all	15	+144.2%	+120.9%	53%	53%	+51.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+120.9%	53%	+51.7%
10%	+99.8%	53%	+37.2%
15%	+80.5%	53%	+23.9%
20%	+62.8%	47%	+11.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 41% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +144% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +21% → late +252% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$26 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage

Net worth$19

Realized+$230

Unrealized−$51

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses8 / 7

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions3

Markets (closed)15 / 18

History coverage147d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	29¢	26¢	$20	$18	−$2 (-12%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Yes	19¢	2¢	$10	$1	−$9 (-89%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$40	$0	−$40 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$10	+$67	+646%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 14	$10	+$73	+708%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	+$45	+440%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$41	+$20	+49%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$21	−$21	-100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 14	$21	+$97	+471%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$59	−$59	-100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$20	+$31	+151%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$15	+$45	+289%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$31	+$33	+108%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 12	$41	−$41	-100%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-01-18?	Jan 19	$19	−$19	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	29¢	$21	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	49¢	$41	4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	15¢	$10	4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	13¢	$10	7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	BUY Over	24¢	$21	24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	5¢	$21	26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	66¢	$41	26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	17¢	$21	26h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$46	35h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$12	35h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	25¢	$15	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5	BUY Over	39¢	$20	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$31	2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	17¢	$21	2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	16¢	$21	2d
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-01-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$9	147d
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-01-18?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	147d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.68 · official $18.68 (match) · 36 history records