Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a20…d4b6 sports 434 markets active 11d ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%192W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day68.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$11
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$7
other 7% −$9
crypto 1% −$2
weather 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 434 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 40% -9.9%
≤90d 434 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 40% -9.9%
all 434 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 40% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 40% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 34% -18.5%
15% -27.7% 28% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 22% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses192 / 242
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)434 / 434
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day68.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 434 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $4 $0 -7%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -1%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $2 −$1 -34%
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $2 −$1 -65%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 −$1 -43%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -17%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 $0 -16%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $2 $0 -17%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $2 $0 -16%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -13%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -20%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $2 +$1 +60%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +78%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $2 $0 -14%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$1 -54%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -22%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $4 −$2 -56%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $2 −$1 -50%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $2 $0 -16%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -22%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $1 −$1 -82%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 −$1 -24%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $2 $0 -22%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $2 $0 -18%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 -21%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $2 +$1 +86%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $2 +$1 +37%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $1 −$1 -40%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $2 −$2 -93%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $2 +$1 +67%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $1 +$2 +165%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $2 −$1 -40%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 11d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 80¢ $2 11d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 91¢ $2 11d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 55¢ $2 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 67¢ $2 11d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 54¢ $2 11d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 33¢ $1 11d
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) SELL Chicago Sky 48¢ $2 11d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 17¢ $1 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 30¢ $1 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 37¢ $2 11d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $2 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 35¢ $1 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 49¢ $2 11d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 34¢ $2 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 11d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 63¢ $2 11d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 43¢ $2 11d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $2 11d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $2 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $2 11d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 11d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $2 11d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 91¢ $2 11d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 48¢ $2 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 73¢ $2 11d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 937 history records