Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a1d…a5c3 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$2
other 21% −$10
tech 6% $0
crypto 5% −$1
sports 5% $0
politics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 27% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 14 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.9%
all 39 -2.0% -11.4% 26% 3% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -11.0%
10% -19.9% 3% -19.5%
15% -27.6% 3% -27.3%
20% -34.7% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage300d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $28 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $26 +$2 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $59 −$3 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $17 −$2 -14%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $2 $0 -7%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $23 −$3 -12%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Nov 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025? Oct 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $1 $0 +60%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $2 $0 -3%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 30 $2 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 10 $34 $0 +1%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 22 $5 $0 -2%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 22 $34 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $1 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $28 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $28 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $20 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $16 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $26 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $26 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $29 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $17 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $22 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $9 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $31 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $29 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.00 · official $28.00 (match) · 129 history records