Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9A 0x9a1d…a0bd other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$31 (+15%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$15
sports 18% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.9% +7.6% 100% 71% +3.6%
≤30d 7 +18.9% +7.6% 100% 71% +3.6%
≤90d 7 +18.9% +7.6% 100% 71% +3.6%
all 7 +18.9% +7.6% 100% 71% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 71% +3.6%
10% -2.7% 43% -6.3%
15% -12.1% 14% -15.4%
20% -20.7% 0% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage105d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $39 +$4 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 +$8 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$10 +46%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $16 +$5 +34%
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? Jun 15 $14 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $44 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $44 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $43 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 90¢ $39 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $31 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 74¢ $16 2d
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $14 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records