Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:02:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a18…7298 crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$53
sports 6% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -33.4% -39.8% 46% 8% -36.9%
≤30d 13 -33.4% -39.8% 46% 8% -36.9%
≤90d 13 -33.4% -39.8% 46% 8% -36.9%
all 13 -33.4% -39.8% 46% 8% -36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.8% 8% -36.9%
10% ← realistic here -45.5% 8% -42.9%
15% -50.8% 8% -48.4%
20% -55.6% 0% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs Jun 28 $10 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs SELL Ugo Humbert 58¢ $10 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs BUY Ugo Humbert 59¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 82¢ $2 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records