Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9a0f…a1ac other 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$141 (+2%) realized +$143 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%44W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$346
14 days+$346
30 days+$346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$274
sports 16% +$337
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +28.6% +16.3% 34% 34% +4.6%
≤30d 32 +28.6% +16.3% 34% 34% +4.6%
≤90d 77 +22.9% +11.2% 36% 35% +6.3%
all 157 +1.1% -8.5% 28% 27% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 27% -8.7%
10% -17.3% 27% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 25% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 23% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$28 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$143
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses44 / 113
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage241d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $232 +$32 +14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$6 -6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$159 +310%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$37 +37%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$195 +191%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$290 +564%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$54 +262%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$50 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$47 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$216 +211%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$229 +1115%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$1 -7%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-26? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $97 +$53 +54%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 26 $17 −$1 -6%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw? Apr 26 $11 +$10 +90%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF end in a draw? Apr 26 $10 −$5 -46%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $21 +$38 +179%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $45 +$512 +1139%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Apr 21 $50 −$25 -50%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $100 +$54 +54%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $134 +$115 +86%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $50 +$24 +48%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-16? Apr 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-04-16? Apr 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $112 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 75¢ $113 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $232 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $72 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 37¢ $96 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $102 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 25h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $210 25h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $139 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 29h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 40h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $297 42h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $258 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $83 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $74 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $252 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $148 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $319 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.83 · official $97.83 (match) · 327 history records