Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a0c…9a45 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$1
world 31% +$4
politics 21% +$1
finance 9% −$2
sports 4% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.2% -7.6% 33% 11% -8.8%
≤30d 12 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 12 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 8% -9.2%
all 70 -0.4% -9.9% 31% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage317d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $59 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $56 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $55 +$3 +6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $108 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $6 +$1 +14%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $92 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $62 −$2 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $6 $0 +8%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $7 $0 +2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $2 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $13 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $14 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $6 $0 +3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-23? Nov 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 12 $5 $0 +2%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 02 $6 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Sep 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $6 $0 -3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 20 $7 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 20 $1 $0 +6%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will valid votes be fewer than 5.8 million in Bolivia election? Aug 18 $7 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 18 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $33 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $2 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $4 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $37 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $22 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $20 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $26 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $28 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $56 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $58 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 72¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 72¢ $53 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $45 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $9 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $54 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $6 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 359 history records