Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a0b…0087 crypto 1246 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$964 (-8%) realized −$928 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%800W / 679L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day104.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,602
7 days−$2,602
14 days−$2,626
30 days−$2,854
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$238
other 4% +$14
sports 1% +$51
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 253 -96.8% -97.1% 1% 1% -90.7%
≤30d 1479 -14.9% -23.0% 54% 53% -27.7%
≤90d 1479 -14.9% -23.0% 54% 53% -27.7%
all 1479 -14.9% -23.0% 54% 53% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 53% -27.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 52% -34.6%
15% -37.1% 32% -40.9%
20% -43.3% 9% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$928
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses800 / 679
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1479 / 1246
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day104.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $162 $126 −$36 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $165 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $165 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $125 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.21 · official $126.21 (match) · 3500 history records