Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a0a…48a2 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$205 (-40%) realized −$209 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate17%20W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$98
world 13% −$38
other 9% −$20
sports 9% +$4
finance 8% −$38
economics 3% −$14
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +20.1% +8.7% 31% 29% -9.7%
≤30d 51 +20.1% +8.7% 31% 29% -9.7%
≤90d 119 -42.9% -48.3% 17% 15% -50.1%
all 119 -42.9% -48.3% 17% 15% -50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.3% 15% -50.1%
10% -53.3% 15% -54.9%
15% -57.8% 15% -59.2%
20% -61.9% 13% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -89% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses20 / 99
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions23
Markets (closed)119 / 142
History coverage51d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 98¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+721%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+300%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1310%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.83 · official $32.83 (match) · 180 history records