Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a07…04e1 crypto 534 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$343 (-10%) realized −$344 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%205W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$136
14 days−$145
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$333
sports 9% +$10
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -7.5% -16.3% 44% 44% -16.3%
≤30d 284 -6.4% -15.3% 46% 46% -15.8%
≤90d 533 -4.2% -13.3% 38% 38% -18.3%
all 533 -4.2% -13.3% 38% 38% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 38% -18.3%
10% -21.6% 38% -26.1%
15% -29.2% 38% -33.3%
20% -36.1% 38% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses205 / 328
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)533 / 534
History coverage40d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 533 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 43¢ 50¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 326 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$57 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$28 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$8 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$49 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$35 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $74 −$71 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $71 +$59 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$8 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $86 −$83 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $67 +$53 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$18 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$54 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$59 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $69 +$53 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$18 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$12 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$119 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $65 −$63 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $63 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $74 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $71 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $86 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $63 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $13 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $67 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $13 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $24 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $13 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.76 · official $5.76 (match) · 860 history records