Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9A 0x9a05…333f other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$215 (+21%) realized +$220 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$104
sports 40% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +17.0% +5.9% 71% 71% +27.5%
≤30d 7 +17.0% +5.9% 71% 71% +27.5%
≤90d 7 +17.0% +5.9% 71% 71% +27.5%
all 7 +17.0% +5.9% 71% 71% +27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 71% +27.5%
10% -4.3% 57% +15.3%
15% -13.5% 57% +4.2%
20% -22.0% 14% -6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$5 · ×8.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×21.94 per $1 lost it wins $21.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$495
Realized+$220
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 82¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$50 +50%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $101 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 71¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 25h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 66¢ $101 45h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $101 45h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $495.18 · official $495.19 (match) · 18 history records